WEBINAR RECORDING · 2025-06
The Uncharted Waters of International Trade
In this conversation: Pol Antràs; discussant Sébastien Dessus; moderators Ben Shepherd and Hanna Norberg.
Pol Antràs maps research gaps in trade, from oligopoly and global value chains to national security and measurement. Sébastien Dessus translates the agenda into development-policy needs. Their exchange calls for institutions, distribution and industry detail alongside numerical model outputs.
Session information draws on the recording and its original description. Affiliations and policy context refer to the time of the webinar.
FROM THE CONVERSATION
Three takeaways.
What they mean in practice.
Prepared from the session recording using automatic transcription and editorial review. Follow the timestamp links for the original wording and context.
Trade models need strategically interacting firms
Watch 16:12 ↗Antràs argues that concentrated trade and complex multinational production make oligopoly relevant beyond pricing and markups. Entry and sourcing can be strategic too. Omitted reorganization and geopolitical constraints may make coherent quantitative counterfactuals poor guides to feasible policy.
Policy interpretation: Check whether the model captures market structure, production links and realistic policy choices before interpreting welfare results.
Security creates a broader, unsettled problem
Watch 22:56 ↗Antràs asks how to model tradeoffs between real income and security and the formation of alliances. Dessus cautions against stable-bloc assumptions: countries need credible investment commitments and firms need flexibility. He includes food, inputs and trade routes within security.
Policy interpretation: Specify the vulnerability and alternatives; fixed-bloc scenarios can miss developing countries’ uncertainty.
An industry study may be the next useful contribution
Watch 52:00 ↗In Q&A, Antràs recommends combining empirical industrial organization, theory and detailed data to understand global industries. Focused questions can reach policymakers faster. Dessus stresses continuing demand for credible evidence on ordinary reforms, jobs and consumption in developing countries.
Policy interpretation: Choose a concrete decision and tailor evidence to it; methodological novelty alone does not establish practical value.
From the discussion
Dessus highlights traceability’s fixed costs and the need for data governance as well as technology (48:42). Antràs warns that AI and big data do not automatically supply causal identification or resolve economic-planning incentives (33:00). Asked how to learn, he recommends review chapters, original papers and hands-on replication (57:31–59:23).
